The Kessler syndrome could become a very real problem for humanity
Scientists have issued a stark warning to humanity when it comes to the Kessler syndrome that could send humanity back to the metaphorical Dark Ages if it comes true.
Modern society is full of technical wonders that we don’t even realise make everything tick along nicely.
From using GPS to make planes run like clockwork to mapping weather to ensure global food production keeps humanity fed, there are lots of nuanced ways modern life works without even realising.
But it could all be at major risk of grinding to a halt if the Kessler syndrome comes true. And now, a fresh warning has been issued over the danger it poses.
NASA simulates Black Hole plunge
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Kessler syndrome definition
First theorised back in 1978, the Kessler syndrome was thought up by NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais.
Their hypothesis was that if humanity keeps flooding the area of space around Earth – known as low Earth orbit (LEO) – with more and more satellites and space junk, it’ll soon get crowded to a point where things could get really bad for people.
Kessler and Cour-Palais said that if we keep sending stuff in to space to orbit around the planet, it will reach a saturation point where collisions begin and cannot be stopped.
NASA says: “Spent rockets, satellites and other space trash have accumulated in orbit increasing the likelihood of collision with other debris.
“Unfortunately, collisions create more debris creating a runaway chain reaction of collisions and more debris known as the Kessler Syndrome after the man who first proposed the issue, Donald Kessler.”
Scientists think we’re close to Kessler syndrome coming to fruition (Getty Stock Photo)
New Kessler syndrome warning
Dan Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, issued a fresh warning over the Kessler syndrome at a 2024 meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Washington DC.
As of 2024, there are more than 10,000 active satellites orbiting the planet, with around 6,800 of them belonging to Elon Musk and his Starlink broadband network.
And it could get a lot more crowded, with more than 40,000 satellites wanted as part of Musk’s Starlink network.
On top of the 10,000 current satellites, there are roughly 40,500 pieces of debris more than 10 centimetres in length orbiting the Earth, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).
With all this in mind, Baker told the December meeting: “We have to get serious about this and recognise that, unless we do something, we are in imminent danger of making a whole part of our Earth environment unusable.”
Space plasma physicist David Malaspina, an assistant professor at the University of Colorado, added: “If the Kessler syndrome starts to happen and we start to see a sort of cascade of collisions, we’re going to see it in the smallest grains first. These are our canary in the coal mine.”
Space junk could end humanity as we know it (Getty Stock Images)
What will happen if the Kessler syndrome comes true?
If a chain reaction of collisions happens around Earth involving satellites, life on the planet could change quickly.
Satellites would be taken out and a result humanity would suffer huge internet and Wi-Fi outages. Phone networks would go down with no satellites in the sky to ping calls from. It would even mean the potential end of TV and GPS.
If that happened, weather satellites would be taken out, impacting our ability to track its impact on a number of industries such as food production and fishing as well as predict natural disasters and save lives.
The problem in such a situation is that there is nothing to slow down the chain reaction around the planet, making it incredibly hard to launch new satellites without them also being taken out.
Life on Earth would change dramatically if the Kessler syndrome comes true (Getty Stock Images)
Stopping the Kessler syndrome
Right now, there are around 1,000 collision warnings every day when it comes to objects in low orbit of Earth, according to Thomas Berger, director of University of Colorado’s Space Weather Technology Research and Education Center.
The problem, Berger says, is that space is lawless when it comes to satellite and sending more up there.
Attention has turned to ways of recycling what is already in space, with debris potentially being reused for new projects. Some have looked at burning up items in Earth’s atmosphere, but this is one that carries caution, with such acts depleting the ozone layer.
Clearly, according to the experts, we have to act fast. And those with the money and political power to do so have that responsibility firmly on their shoulders.Featured Image Credit: Getty Stock Images
Topics: Environment, NASA, Phones, Science, Space, Technology, World News, Elon Musk
Tom Earnshaw
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Updated 11:31 17 Oct 2024 GMT+1Published 12:46 16 Oct 2024 GMT+1
Scientists worried over ‘Kessler syndrome’ that could leave Earth without internet, TV, and working phones
First proposed back in 1978, its a terrifying concept for modern society
Millions of us have seen the epic blockbuster film Gravity, starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, as they’re left stranded in space after things go awfully wrong on a mission to the Hubble Space Telescope.
Well, the entire concept of how things go Pete Tong is a dramatic take on something that is thought to be a very real possibility in real life.
The film follows Bullock and Clooney repairing Hubble when they get a warning from Mission Control in Houston that they need to speed things up, with a spot down spy satellite creating a debris field orbiting the Earth and heading right for them.
A domino effect follows, with the debris knocking out communication satellites as well as tearing apart Hubble and later, the International Space Station (ISS). Enter the realm of the Kessler syndrome, which scientists believe to be a very real risk as the space race hots up once again through the likes of Elon Musk and his SpaceX company.
NASA simulates Black Hole plunge
YouTube/NASA Goddard
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What is the Kessler syndrome?
Humanity has been exploring space for more than half a century, with it one of the great unknowns that we can’t resist but try and learn more about.
But it isn’t without problem, with NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais coming up with a potentially troublesome scenario.
Back in 1978, the two experts theorised that if humanity keeps on sending more and more spacecraft in to the cosmic void, we’re going to get in to trouble as it gets more and more crowded around Earth as the chances of a collision are upped.
“Spent rockets, satellites and other space trash have accumulated in orbit increasing the likelihood of collision with other debris,” NASA explains.
“Unfortunately, collisions create more debris creating a runaway chain reaction of collisions and more debris known as the Kessler Syndrome after the man who first proposed the issue, Donald Kessler.”
The Kessler syndrome brought to life in Gravity (Warner Bros.)
Why scientists are worried the Kessler syndrome will be proved true
Some experts are convinced it is just a matter of time until the Kessler syndrome is proven true.
John L Crassidis, a professor of innovation and space debris expert at the University at Buffalo, New York, said: “The Kessler syndrome is going to come true. If the probability of a collision is so great that we can’t put a satellite in space, then we’re in trouble.”
Currently, more than 10,000 satellites are orbiting the Earth. On top of that, more than 100 trillion pieces of old satellite are still circling the planet, with parts occasionally falling in to the Earth’s atmosphere over time and burning up.
Kessler demonstrated that once the amount of debris in a particular orbit reaches something called ‘critical mass’, collisions begin even if no more objects are launched into the orbit.
“Once collisional cascading begins, the risk to satellites and spacecraft increases until the orbit is no longer usable,” NASA says.
Kessler estimated that it would take 30 to 40 years to get to this point. Nowadays, some experts thing we are already at critical mass in low-Earth orbit, which is roughly 560 to 620 miles (900 to 1,000 kilometers). Events in recent years include a deactivated Russian satellite smashing into a US satellite back in 2009.
And in 2021, a Russian missile that destroyed one of its own satellites as part of a test forced astronauts on the ISS to undertake emergency procedures.
The dangers of the Kessler syndrome mean our satellites could be taken out by space junk (Getty Stock Image)
Why the Kessler syndrome could end life as we know it on Earth
If satellites and debris enter a chain reaction of collisions, life as we know it could end.
Satellites could be taken out, which could see huge internet and Wi-F outages. Phones could also go down with no satellites in the sky to ping calls from. It would even mean the potential end of TV and GPS.
And on a more general level, weather satellites could be taken out, impacting our critical ability to track its impact on a number of industries.
“Weather satellites play an important role in a variety of industries, including agriculture, fisheries, and transportation, by predicting and mitigating the effects of adverse weather conditions,” says Amrith Mariappan and John L. Crassidis in their 2023 paper entitled ‘Kessler’s syndrome: a challenge to humanity’.
They explain: “Remote sensing satellites, in turn, make significant contributions to resource exploration and monitoring of phenomena such as floods, droughts, soil moisture, wildfires, vegetation health, forest degradation, road infrastructure surveillance, etc. Remote sensing satellites are used in the military to capture high-resolution images of strategic locations, monitor enemy activities, and assess potential threats.”
The paper adds that it could devastate healthcare, with medical devices offline.
The problem in this situation, if we reach what Kessler called the ‘critical mass’ stage, is that it then becomes too dangerous to send anything in to space due to the chain reaction that is existing around the planet with debris flying at immense speed.
Life on Earth would change dramatically if the Kessler syndrome comes true (Getty Stock Image)
How to stop the Kessler syndrome
Mariappan and Crassidis write that the ‘recycling of space debris emerges as a promising and long-term sustainable solution to the mitigation of space debris’.
Another short term option being taken by some is to de-orbit waste and let it burn up in the atmosphere of Earth.
While it can remove immediate threats it is risky and poses a large environmental problem, such as the depletion of the ozone layer.
“By repurposing decommissioned satellites and debris into useful materials to support other space missions, this recycling strategy presents a win-win scenario, promoting environmental sustainability and resource efficiency in space exploration,” Mariappan and Crassidis say.
The European Space Agency says it wants to become ‘debris-neutral’ by 2030, by which it means ‘adding zero net debris to the Earth orbital environment’, with a larger aim to reuse parts by 2050.
Whether we, as a species, get to the stage where we can stop the Kessler syndrome from becoming reality remains to be seen. Efforts are under way to stop it, all we can do is hope that is enough.Featured Image Credit: Getty Stock Images
Topics: Space, Science, Technology, Environment, NASA
Tom Earnshaw
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Updated 15:24 26 Jul 2024 GMT+1Published 15:25 26 Jul 2024 GMT+1
NASA scientist warns about ‘real risk of asteroid’ with potentially ‘huge consequences’ if it hits Earth
We’ll probably be fine, the chances of being hit are pretty low
Many millions of years ago the dominant creatures on the planet were going about their normal lives of eating, sleeping, fighting and f**king when a big asteroid came down and kablamo! Life on Earth was irrevocably changed.
When that one came down, it wiped out about three quarters of all plant and animal life on this rock.
What If An Asteroid Were Going To Hit Earth?
Credit: NASA/Scott Bednar/Jessica Wilde
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Now we’re the dominant creatures on this planet, but the possibility that a chunk of rock hurtling through space might come crashing down and spell doom for us all is still very present.
Space hasn’t run out of asteroids that may come our way, though we’d have more advance warning than the dinosaurs.
We’ve got all sorts of instruments and gizmos to plot the paths of asteroids so we can spot them coming and plan accordingly.
That plan would first figure out how much time we had to respond, as we could have years or even decades to mount a response.
If an asteroid was heading for Earth what could we do about it? (Getty Stock Photo)
In that case, the asteroid could well be deflected off-course, but if it’s going to hit within five years it’ll have to be destroyed.
We’ve already practiced this on other asteroids not headed for our planet so if our warning system pings up a problem, it’s something we might be able to handle.
It’s better than the dinosaurs – at least they didn’t even have spaceships and satellites.
One of the planet’s greatest asteroid experts is planetary scientist Dante Lauretta, the leader of NASA’s OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return mission which successfully landed on an asteroid called Bennu and collected samples which it dropped off back on Earth.
Speaking to Inverse, he said that the chances of us being struck by an asteroid weren’t high, but it was something we’d need to think about.
“I am not having a good day.” (Getty Stock Photo)
He said: “The risk of an asteroid impact is real. It’s small. But the consequences are huge.
“We live our lives with our heads down with all our daily struggles. But every once in a while, you look up, and you go, you know, there could be something coming, and maybe we should think about it.”
He also said that we had new facilities to spot asteroids, though lamented the closure of some places like the Arecibo radar system in Puerto Rico, which was damaged by a hurricane and is not currently being rebuilt.
Lauretta said that learning about asteroids and the ‘unbelievably powerful’ forces in the universe means ‘you can’t help but feel tiny’, but that doesn’t make the wonders of space any less of an ‘amazing place to explore’.Featured Image Credit: Getty Stock Images
Topics: Space, Science, NASA, Technology
Joe Harker
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Published 13:12 17 Oct 2024 GMT+1
How Kessler syndrome that has left scientists worried could change modern society in Britain
If Kessler syndrome comes true, society as we know it will never be the same
Kessler syndrome is a phenomenon that’s worrying not just the general public, but those in the scientific community too.
It’s something that’s coming to light after almost half a century of space exploration, though the theory itself was thought up by NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais all the way back in 1978.
The experts figured out that if the human race kept sending satellites and other spacecraft up into orbit (which we have), then we would be in trouble as the risk of collision would increase, with it becoming progressively more crowded around our planet.
This, in a nutshell, is Kessler syndrome.
It could alter society for good (NASA)
Why are scientists worried about Kessler syndrome?
NASA has explained: “Spent rockets, satellites and other space trash have accumulated in orbit increasing the likelihood of collision with other debris,
“Unfortunately, collisions create more debris creating a runaway chain reaction of collisions and more debris known as the Kessler Syndrome after the man who first proposed the issue, Donald Kessler.”
A number of scientists think it is bound to happen at some point, as Kessler estimated that it would take 30 to 40 years from 1978 to reach ‘critical mass’, which is when collisions begin, even if no more objects are put into orbit.
There are over 10,000 satellites orbiting our planet as it stands, as well as more than 100 trillion pieces of old satellite making their way around the world, occasionally entering the atmosphere and burning up before hitting the surface.
Satellites have collided in the past already, such as a deactivated Russian satellite crashing into a US satellite in 2009.
Scientists think we’re close to Kessler syndrome coming to fruition (Getty Stock Image)
How will this change modern society?
John L Crassidis, a professor of innovation and space debris at the University at Buffalo, New York, stated: “The Kessler syndrome is going to come true. If the probability of a collision is so great that we can’t put a satellite in space, then we’re in trouble.”
NASA further explained: “Once collisional cascading begins, the risk to satellites and spacecraft increases until the orbit is no longer usable.”
Essentially, if satellites and debris go into a chain reaction of collisions, life on Earth as we know it could end – abruptly.
If satellites get destroyed, massive internet, Wi-Fi and cellular service outages would take place, while TV and GPS would not longer function.
We wouldn’t be able to track weather anymore either, which would impact a number of industries.
In their 2023 paper, titled Kessler’s syndrome: a challenge to humanity, Amrith Mariappan and John L. Crassidis explained: “Weather satellites play an important role in a variety of industries, including agriculture, fisheries, and transportation, by predicting and mitigating the effects of adverse weather conditions.”
Any form of electronic communication would be made redundant (Getty Stock Image)
How impactful would losing weather satellites really be?
Mariappan and Crassidis further noted: “Remote sensing satellites, in turn, make significant contributions to resource exploration and monitoring of phenomena such as floods, droughts, soil moisture, wildfires, vegetation health, forest degradation, road infrastructure surveillance, etc.
“Remote sensing satellites are used in the military to capture high-resolution images of strategic locations, monitor enemy activities, and assess potential threats.”
It doesn’t just stop there, as healthcare would be impacted as medical devices would go offline as well.
The issue is if humans were to reach ‘critical mass’ in orbit, then it would too dangerous to send anything into space because of the chain reaction of Kessler syndrome and the sheer amount of debris flying around at immense speed around our planet.
We would have to go back to our ancestral basics.Featured Image Credit: NASA/Getty Stock Image
Topics: Space, Science, Technology, World News, NASA, Environment
Joshua Nair
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Updated 16:31 3 Oct 2024 GMT+1Published 13:46 3 Oct 2024 GMT+1
Astronomer who unveiled ‘Pale Blue Dot’ photo of Earth sent a chilling message to our planet
The astronomer believed the image should be a stark reminder to all of mankind
The astronomer who unveiled the ‘Pale Blue Dot’ in the 1990s has explained why he believed the image was so important for all of mankind to see.
Throughout his life, legendary planetary scientist Carl Sagan dedicated his work to furthering our understanding of space and the possibility of extraterrestrial life (aka aliens) existing.
Often described as ‘the scientist who made the Universe clearer to the ordinary person’, Sagan took the complex – and often mind-boggling – world of astrophysics and made it easily accessible to the likes of you and I.
In 1990, Sagan unveiled an image called the ‘Pale Blue Dot’ to the world, take a look at the image below:
The image was released in 14 February 1990 (NASA/JPL-Caltech)
Now, upon first glance I know this photo looks like an image of the night sky taken in your back garden on an old mobile phone.
However, I assure you this is not an average photo of the night sky, but instead an image captured by by NASA’s Voyager 1 around 3.7 billion miles (6 billion kilometers) from the Sun.
The subject of this photo? Planet Earth.
Look closely at the photo and you’ll notice a small pale blue dot just off centre in the upper right part of the image, that’s us.
After seeing the images, Sagan was inspired to use it as a way to drive home just how unique our situation is in the universe.Play
Talking about the lack of interstellar life in a press conference for the image, Sagan said: “For me, that underscores the rarity and preciousness of the Earth and the life upon it.
“On that blue dot, that’s where everyone you know. Everyone you ever heard of, and every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives.”
Urging others to use the image as inspiration to look after our collective home, he continued: “Just speaking for myself, I think this perspective underscores our responsibility to preserve and cherish that blue dot, the only home we have.”
I can think of a few people who could use such a reminder, that’s for sure.
That’s us, the blue dot (YouTube/The Planetary Society)
Like the astronauts who’ve spoken candidly about the impact of the ‘Overview Effect‘, the image leave a lasting impact on Sagan. He would later go on to name his 1994 book Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space after the image.
Proving this photo is definitely not your typical image of the night sky.
The legacy of the ‘Pale Blue Dot’ has gone on to inspire more than Sagan in the subsequent years as well, with Garry Hunt telling the BBC in 2020 that he often uses the image as a way to drive home the importance of taking climate change seriously.
“Every time I give a climate talk and I talk about what you’re doing now to make a change – I show this picture because it shows the Earth is an isolated speck. This tiny blue dot is the only place we can possible live, and we’re making a jolly good mess of it,” he said in the interview.